Crop Production ISSN: 1936-3737 Released April 11, 2024, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Orange Production Down 1 Percent from March Forecast The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is 2.73 million tons, down 1 percent from the previous forecast but up 7 percent from the 2022-2023 revised utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 18.8 million boxes (846,000 tons), is down 5 percent from the previous forecast but up 19 percent from last season's revised utilization. In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at 6.80 million boxes (306,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 11 percent from last season's revised utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 12.0 million boxes (540,000 tons), is down 8 percent from the previous forecast but up 24 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California all orange forecast is 46.0 million boxes (1.84 million tons), is unchanged from previous forecast but up 3 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California Navel orange forecast is 38.0 million boxes (1.52 million tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.00 million boxes (320,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but down 7 percent from last season's revised utilization. The Texas all orange forecast, at 1.10 million boxes (47,000 tons) up 16 percent from the previous forecast but down 3 percent from last season's revised utilization. This report was approved on April 11, 2024. Secretary of Agriculture Designate Gloria M. Greene Agricultural Statistics Board Acting Chairperson Lance Honig Contents Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and Forecasted April 1, 2024............................................................................................ 5 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.. 6 Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.... 8 Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024.............................. 10 Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024................................ 11 Percent of Normal Precipitation Map...................................................................... 12 Departure from Normal Temperature Map.................................................................... 12 March Weather Summary.................................................................................... 13 March Agricultural Summary............................................................................... 13 Crop Comments............................................................................................ 14 Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15 Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts......................................................... 15 Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16 This page intentionally left blank. Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2022-2023 and Forecasted April 1, 2024 [The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent Crop and State :----------------------------------------------------------------------- : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 : 2022-2023 : 2023-2024 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : ------ 1,000 boxes ----- ------ 1,000 tons ----- Oranges : California, all ............: 44,700 46,000 1,788 1,840 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 36,100 38,000 1,444 1,520 Valencia ..................: 8,600 8,000 344 320 : Florida, all ...............: 15,820 18,800 712 846 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 6,150 6,800 277 306 Valencia ..................: 9,670 12,000 435 540 : Texas, all .................: 1,130 1,100 48 47 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 570 700 24 30 Valencia ..................: 560 400 24 17 : United States, all .........: 61,650 65,900 2,548 2,733 Early, mid, and Navel 2/ ..: 42,820 45,500 1,745 1,856 Valencia ..................: 18,830 20,400 803 877 : Grapefruit : California .................: 4,300 4,100 172 164 Florida ....................: 1,810 2,000 77 85 Texas ......................: 2,250 2,600 90 104 : United States ..............: 8,360 8,700 339 353 : Tangerines and mandarins 3/ : California .................: 23,550 22,000 942 880 Florida ....................: 480 500 23 24 : United States ..............: 24,030 22,500 965 904 : Lemons : Arizona ....................: 1,400 1,050 56 42 California .................: 26,000 22,000 1,040 880 : United States ..............: 27,400 23,050 1,096 922 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80. 2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. 3/ Includes tangelos and tangors. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : 1,000 acres : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3,101 2,566 2,555 Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 94,641 90,036 86,513 Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,471 Hay, all ...............................: (NA) (NA) 52,821 51,562 Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 15,634 All other ............................: (NA) 37,187 Oats ...................................: 2,555 2,318 831 Proso millet ...........................: 619 572 Rice ...................................: 2,894 2,932 2,854 Rye ....................................: 2,293 322 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 7,195 6,395 6,115 Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 384 Wheat, all .............................: 49,575 47,498 37,272 Winter ...............................: 36,699 34,135 24,683 Durum ................................: 1,676 2,028 1,604 Other spring .........................: 11,200 11,335 10,985 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2,344.5 2,366.5 2,319.2 Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X) Flaxseed ...............................: 178 105 160 Mustard seed ...........................: 245.0 238.1 Peanuts ................................: 1,645.0 1,651.0 1,574.0 Rapeseed ...............................: 13.2 10.1 Safflower ..............................: 129.5 126.0 Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,600 86,510 82,356 Sunflower ..............................: 1,315.0 957.5 1,267.5 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all ............................: 10,230.0 10,673.0 7,064.6 Upland ...............................: 10,083.0 10,470.0 6,924.8 American Pima ........................: 147.0 203.0 139.8 Sugarbeets .............................: 1,137.4 1,129.0 1,127.3 Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 929.6 Tobacco ................................: (NA) (NA) 187.6 165.3 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 372.4 429.0 359.2 Dry edible beans .......................: 1,180.0 1,316.0 1,156.9 Dry edible peas ........................: 966.0 974.0 941.0 Lentils ................................: 546.0 762.0 523.0 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: (NA) 54.3 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 31.3 Potatoes ...............................: 965.0 960.2 Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 12.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per acre : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ------ 1,000 ------ : Grains and hay : Barley ..........................bushels: 72.4 185,036 Corn for grain ..................bushels: 177.3 15,341,595 Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.1 129,994 Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.25 118,769 Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.19 49,916 All other ........................tons: 1.85 68,853 Oats ............................bushels: 68.6 57,045 Proso millet ....................bushels: 34.2 19,572 Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,649 218,291 Rye .............................bushels: 32.2 10,375 Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 52.0 317,745 Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.0 4,981 Wheat, all ......................bushels: 48.6 1,811,977 Winter ........................bushels: 50.6 1,247,748 Durum .........................bushels: 37.0 59,329 Other spring ..................bushels: 46.0 504,900 : Oilseeds : Canola ...........................pounds: 1,793 4,157,420 Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 3,788.0 Flaxseed ........................bushels: 18.5 2,961 Mustard seed .....................pounds: 627 149,305 Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,742 5,890,020 Rapeseed .........................pounds: 2,003 20,230 Safflower ........................pounds: 1,036 130,570 Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.6 4,164,677 Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,786 2,263,520 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 845 12,434.0 Upland 2/ .......................bales: 841 12,127.0 American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,054 307.0 Sugarbeets .........................tons: 31.2 35,226 Sugarcane ..........................tons: 36.3 33,766 Tobacco ..........................pounds: 2,305 432,452 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,315 4,722 Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 2,067 23,910 Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 1,922 18,086 Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,098 5,742 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops .............................pounds: 1,915 104,042.5 Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,179 Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 666,647 Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 90 2,811 Potatoes ............................cwt: 459 440,750 Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 126 1,541 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Yield in pounds. Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area planted : Area harvested Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : hectares : Grains and hay : Barley .........................: 1,254,940 1,038,430 1,033,980 Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 38,300,270 36,436,670 35,010,950 Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,618,750 Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) (NA) 21,376,130 20,866,630 Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,326,920 All other ....................: (NA) 15,049,210 Oats ...........................: 1,033,980 938,070 336,300 Proso millet ...................: 250,500 231,480 Rice ...........................: 1,171,170 1,186,550 1,154,990 Rye ............................: 927,950 130,310 Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,911,740 2,587,990 2,474,680 Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 155,400 Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 20,062,510 19,221,970 15,083,610 Winter .......................: 14,851,720 13,814,090 9,988,960 Durum ........................: 678,260 820,710 649,120 Other spring .................: 4,532,530 4,587,160 4,445,520 : Oilseeds : Canola .........................: 948,800 957,700 938,560 Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X) Flaxseed .......................: 72,030 42,490 64,750 Mustard seed ...................: 99,150 96,360 Peanuts ........................: 665,720 668,140 636,980 Rapeseed .......................: 5,340 4,090 Safflower ......................: 52,410 50,990 Soybeans for beans .............: 33,832,080 35,009,730 33,328,650 Sunflower ......................: 532,170 387,490 512,940 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops: Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,139,980 4,319,260 2,858,970 Upland .......................: 4,080,490 4,237,100 2,802,400 American Pima ................: 59,490 82,150 56,580 Sugarbeets .....................: 460,290 456,900 456,210 Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 376,200 Tobacco ........................: (NA) (NA) 75,930 66,900 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ......................: 150,710 173,610 145,360 Dry edible beans ...............: 477,530 532,570 468,190 Dry edible peas ................: 390,930 394,170 380,810 Lentils ........................: 220,960 308,370 211,650 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...........................: (NA) 21,980 Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA) Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA) Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 12,670 Potatoes .......................: 390,530 388,580 Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 4,940 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 (continued) [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2024 crop year. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : Yield per hectare : Production Crop :------------------------------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : metric tons : Grains and hay : Barley .................................: 3.90 4,028,680 Corn for grain .........................: 11.13 389,694,460 Corn for silage ........................: 45.03 117,928,570 Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.04 107,745,420 Alfalfa ..............................: 7.16 45,283,030 All other ............................: 4.15 62,462,390 Oats ...................................: 2.46 828,010 Proso millet ...........................: 1.92 443,890 Rice ...................................: 8.57 9,901,510 Rye ....................................: 2.02 263,540 Sorghum for grain ......................: 3.26 8,071,090 Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.08 4,518,690 Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.27 49,313,930 Winter ...............................: 3.40 33,958,140 Durum ................................: 2.49 1,614,670 Other spring .........................: 3.09 13,741,130 : Oilseeds : Canola .................................: 2.01 1,885,770 Cottonseed .............................: (X) 3,436,420 Flaxseed ...............................: 1.16 75,210 Mustard seed ...........................: 0.70 67,720 Peanuts ................................: 4.19 2,671,670 Rapeseed ...............................: 2.25 9,180 Safflower ..............................: 1.16 59,230 Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.40 113,343,930 Sunflower ..............................: 2.00 1,026,720 : Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops : Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.95 2,707,180 Upland ...............................: 0.94 2,640,340 American Pima ........................: 1.18 66,840 Sugarbeets .............................: 70.05 31,956,490 Sugarcane ..............................: 81.42 30,632,000 Tobacco ................................: 2.58 196,160 : Dry beans, peas, and lentils : Chickpeas ..............................: 1.47 214,190 Dry edible beans .......................: 2.32 1,084,540 Dry edible peas ........................: 2.15 820,370 Lentils ................................: 1.23 260,450 : Potatoes and miscellaneous : Hops ...................................: 2.15 47,190 Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 20,900 Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 302,390 Peppermint oil .........................: 0.10 1,280 Potatoes ...............................: 51.45 19,992,090 Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 700 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (NA) Not available. (X) Not applicable. 1/ Area planted for all purposes. 2/ Total may not add due to rounding. Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 339 353 Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,096 922 Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 2,548 2,733 Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 965 904 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 9,910.0 Apricots ..............................tons: 32,400 Avocados ..............................tons: Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds: Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 371,000 Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 203.0 Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: Cranberries .........................barrel: 7,620,000 : Dates .................................tons: Grapes ................................tons: 6,285,000 Kiwifruit (California) ................tons: Nectarines (California) ...............tons: Olives (California) ...................tons: Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds: Peaches ...............................tons: 543,000 Pears .................................tons: 645,000 Plums (California) ....................tons: Prunes (California) ...................tons: Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds: Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 2,600,000 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds: Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 271,450 Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 760,000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2023 and 2024 [Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2023 crop year, except citrus which is for the 2023-2024 season. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Production Crop :----------------------------------- : 2023 : 2024 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : metric tons : Citrus 1/ : Grapefruit ................................: 307,540 320,240 Lemons ....................................: 994,270 836,420 Oranges ...................................: 2,311,510 2,479,340 Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 875,430 820,100 : Noncitrus : Apples, commercial ........................: 4,495,100 Apricots ..................................: 29,390 Avocados ..................................: Blueberries, Cultivated ...................: Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................: Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 336,570 Cherries, Tart ............................: 92,080 Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: Cranberries ...............................: 345,640 : Dates .....................................: Grapes ....................................: 5,701,660 Kiwifruit (California) ....................: Nectarines (California) ...................: Olives (California) .......................: Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................: Peaches ...................................: 492,600 Pears .....................................: 585,130 Plums (California) ........................: Prunes (California) .......................: Raspberries, all ..........................: Strawberries ..............................: : Nuts and miscellaneous : Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,179,340 Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................: Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 123,130 Pistachios (California) ...................: Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 689,460 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Production years are 2022-2023 and 2023-2024. March Weather Summary The Nation's winter wheat emerged from dormancy mostly in better shape than last autumn, with decreasing drought coverage and a general lack of cold- season extremes favoring the crop. By March 31, fifty-six percent of the Nation's winter wheat was rated in good to excellent condition, up from 50 percent on November 26, 2023. Between late November and the end of March, double-digit increases in good-to-excellent ratings were observed in several winter wheat-production states, including Kansas (from 32 to 48 percent), Oregon (from 37 to 71 percent), Michigan (from 46 to 56 percent), Nebraska (from 49 to 65 percent), and Oklahoma (from 53 to 73 percent). According to statistics derived from the Drought Monitor, the percentage of the Nation's winter wheat production area in drought decreased from an autumn 2023 peak of 49 percent to a March minimum of 12 percent. During the 5-week period from February 27 to April 2, overall drought coverage in the Lower 48 States decreased slightly from 21.59 to 18.01 percent, according to the Drought Monitor. Periodic March storminess across the South, Midwest, and West led to decreases in drought coverage, while worsening conditions were noted in a few areas, including portions of the southern High Plains. An area centered on northwestern Oklahoma received minimal moisture during February and March, with short-term drought impacts being exacerbated by periods of warm, windy weather. In the upper Midwest, late-March storminess dented a "snow drought" that had left soils relatively dry heading into spring. In a 4-day period, 40 to 50 percent of the season-to-date snowfall occurred in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. More broadly, March storms helped to replenish soil moisture across large sections of the Plains and Midwest. Still, by March 31, topsoil moisture was rated at least 30 percent very short to short in 13 states across the Rockies, Plains, and Midwest, led by New Mexico (81 percent very short to short) and Iowa (59 percent). As a result, fieldwork advanced with few delays, allowing 21 percent of the oats to be planted in Iowa by March 31, along with 12 percent in Nebraska and 10 percent in South Dakota. One of the wettest areas during March was the middle and northern Atlantic States. For Atlantic City, New Jersey, it was the wettest March on record, with precipitation totaling 9.85 inches. By March 31, topsoil moisture was rated 100 percent surplus in Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Meanwhile, active March weather in the West padded high-elevation snowpack. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency of the Sierra Nevada snowpack reached 29 inches by April 1, about 110 percent of average. In fact, near- or above-average snowpack was reported by April 1 in nearly all drainage basins along and south of a line from Oregon to western and southern Wyoming. In contrast, snow-water equivalency was mostly 75 percent of average or less in much of Montana, Washington, northern Idaho, and northeastern Wyoming. General warmth across the eastern half of the country contrasted with mostly near- or below-normal temperatures from the Pacific Coast to the High Plains. Continuing a recent theme, the warmest weather-relative to normal-stretched from the Midwest into the Northeast, with monthly temperatures averaging more than 5�F above normal in many locations. In contrast, monthly readings averaged at least 3�F below normal in parts of northern Montana and western North Dakota, propelled by cold outbreaks in early and late March. The strongest surge of cool air into the Southeast peaked on March 19, with hard freezes (28�F or below) reaching into parts of the Tennessee Valley, including northern Alabama. March Agricultural Summary March was warmer than average for most of the eastern half of the Nation. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and New England recorded temperature 6�F or more above normal. In contrast, most of the western half of the Nation was cooler than normal. Parts of the Northern Plains, Northern Rockies, and Southwest recorded temperatures 4�F or more below normal. During March, much of the western half of the Nation received higher than normal amounts of precipitation. Parts of the Great Basin, Northern Plains, Rockies, and Southwest received at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. Higher than normal amounts of precipitation were also recorded for much of the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Northeast, and South. Much of New England, as well as large parts of the Mid-Atlantic Coast and southern Florida, recorded at least twice the normal amount of precipitation. By March 31, six percent of the Nation's winter wheat crop was headed, 1 percentage point behind last year but 1 percentage point ahead of the 5-year average. On March 31, fifty-six percent of the 2024 winter wheat crop was reported in good to excellent condition, 29 percentage points above last year. Crop Comments Grapefruit: The United States 2023-2024 grapefruit crop is forecast at 353,000 tons, up 4 percent from the previous forecast and up 4 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California forecast, at 4.10 million boxes (164,000 tons), is up 8 percent from previous forecast but down 5 percent from the last seasons revised total. Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is forecast at 904,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 6 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California tangerine and mandarin forecast at 22.0 million boxes (880,000 tons) is unchanged from the previous forecast but down 7 percent from last season's revised total. Lemons: The 2023-2024 United States lemon crop is forecast at 922,000 tons, up 10 percent from previous forecast but down 16 percent from last season's revised utilization. The California forecast, at 22.0 million boxes (880,000 tons), is up 10 percent from the previous forecast but down 15 percent from the revised 2022-2023 season. Statistical Methodology Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the April 1 forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September of last year, the number of bearing trees and number of fruit per tree is determined. In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which are combined with the previous components to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct grower surveys on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July. California also conducts objective measurement surveys in September for Navel oranges and in March for Valencia oranges. Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with historical estimates. The Florida Field Office submits its analysis of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the Florida survey data and their analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published April 1 forecast. Revision policy: The April 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders, shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local utilization and home use. Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the April 1 production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the April 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example, the "Root Mean Square Error" for the April 1 orange production forecast is 3.8 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more than 3.8 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 6.6 percent. Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for oranges of the differences between the April 1 forecast and the final estimate. Changes for oranges between the April 1 forecast and the final estimates during the past 20-years have averaged 154,000 tons, ranging from 0 ton to 502,000 tons. The April 1 forecast for oranges has been below the final estimate 7 times, above 12 times, and equal 1 time. The difference does not imply that the April 1 forecasts this year are likely to understate or overstate final production. Reliability of April 1 Crop Production Forecasts [Based on data for the past twenty years] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : : : Difference between forecast : : : and final estimate : : :---------------------------------------- : :90 percent : Production : Years Crop : Root mean :confidence :---------------------------------------- :square error: interval : : : : Below : Above : : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ : ---- percent --- ----- millions ----- number : Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 3.8 6.6 154 0 502 7 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Quantity is in thousands of units. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov Nicholas Streff, Acting Chief, Crops Branch.......................................... (202) 720-2127 Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section............................................ (202) 720-2127 Irwin Anolik - Crop Progress and Condition...................................... (202) 720-7621 Joshua Bates - Hemp, Oats, Soybeans............................................. (202) 690-3234 Natasha Bruton - Barley, Cotton System Consumption and Stocks, Grain Crushings.. (202) 690-1042 David Colwell - Fats and Oils, Flour Milling Products........................... (202) 720-8800 Michelle Harder - County Estimates, Hay......................................... (202) 690-8533 James Johanson - Rye, Wheat..................................................... (202) 720-8068 Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet..................................... (202) 720-9526 Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum................................. (202) 720-5944 Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds...................................... (202) 720-7369 Travis Thorson - Peanuts, Rice.................................................. (202) 720-2127 Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section................... (202) 720-2127 Deonne Holiday - Almonds, Carrots, Coffee, Cranberries, Garlic, Onions, Plums, Prunes, Tobacco............................................................... (202) 720-4288 Bret Holliman - Apricots, Chickpeas, Nectarines, Peaches, Snap Beans, Sweet Corn, Tomatoes................................................................. (202) 720-7235 Robert Little - Blueberries, Cabbage, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup, Pears, Raspberries, Spinach............................................. (202) 720-3250 Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Asparagus, Celery, Grapefruit, Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges, Pistachios............... (202) 720-5412 Chris Singh - Apples, Cucumbers, Hazelnuts, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes.......................... (202) 720-4285 Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Grapes, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.............. (202) 720-2157 Chris Wallace - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cauliflower, Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Hops, Papayas, Pecans............................ (202) 720-4215 Access to NASS Reports For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following ways: All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web site: www.nass.usda.gov. Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e- mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports you would like to receive. Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and other agency's archived reports. The new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing reports will be sent from the new website, https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an account or subscribe, they are located at: https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: nass@usda.gov. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race, color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion, reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs and/or employment activities.) If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination, complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer, or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form. Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at program.intake@usda.gov.