Crop Production
ISSN: 1936-3737
Released February 9, 2021, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
Orange Production Up 2 Percent from January Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2020-2021 season is
4.62 million tons, up 2 percent from the previous forecast but
down 11 percent from the 2019-2020 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 56.0 million boxes (2.52 million tons), is up 4 percent from the
previous forecast but down 17 percent from last season's final utilization.
In Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at
22.0 million boxes (990,000 tons), up 10 percent from the previous forecast
but down 26 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida
Valencia orange forecast, at 34.0 million boxes (1.53 million tons), is
unchanged from the previous forecast but down 10 percent from last season's
final utilization. California and Texas orange production forecasts were
carried forward from the previous forecast.
This report was approved on February 9, 2021.
Secretary of Agriculture
Designate
Seth Meyer
Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Joseph L. Parsons
Contents
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2019-2020 and Forecasted
February 1, 2021......................................................................................... 4
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2019 and 2020......... 5
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021.. 6
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021.... 8
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021.............................. 10
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021................................ 11
January Percent of Normal Precipitation Map.............................................................. 12
January Departure from Normal Temperature Map............................................................ 12
January Weather Summary.................................................................................. 13
January Agricultural Summary............................................................................. 13
Crop Comments............................................................................................ 13
Statistical Methodology.................................................................................. 15
Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts...................................................... 15
Information Contacts..................................................................................... 16
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop - States and United States: 2019-2020 and
Forecasted February 1, 2021
[The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of
harvest the following year]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Utilized production boxes 1/ :Utilized production ton equivalent
Crop and State :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2019-2020 : 2020-2021 : 2019-2020 : 2020-2021
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 boxes ------ ------ 1,000 tons -----
Oranges :
California, all 2/ .........: 53,300 51,000 2,132 2,040
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 44,300 42,000 1,772 1,680
Valencia ..................: 9,000 9,000 360 360
:
Florida, all ...............: 67,300 56,000 3,028 2,520
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 29,650 22,000 1,334 990
Valencia ..................: 37,650 34,000 1,694 1,530
:
Texas, all 2/ ..............: 1,340 1,500 57 64
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 1,150 1,300 49 55
Valencia ..................: 190 200 8 9
:
United States, all .........: 121,940 108,500 5,217 4,624
Early, mid, and Navel 3/ ..: 75,100 65,300 3,155 2,725
Valencia ..................: 46,840 43,200 2,062 1,899
:
Grapefruit :
California 2/ ..............: 3,800 4,200 152 168
Florida, all ...............: 4,850 4,600 207 196
Red 4/ ....................: 4,060 (NA) 173 (NA)
White 4/ ..................: 790 (NA) 34 (NA)
Texas 2/ ...................: 4,400 5,000 176 200
:
United States ..............: 13,050 13,800 535 564
:
Tangerines and mandarins 5/ :
California 2/ ..............: 22,000 23,000 880 920
Florida ....................: 1,020 1,050 48 50
:
United States ..............: 23,020 24,050 928 970
:
Lemons 2/ :
Arizona ....................: 1,800 1,900 72 76
California .................: 25,700 24,000 1,028 960
:
United States ..............: 27,500 25,900 1,100 1,036
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85; grapefruit in
California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins in California-80, Florida-95;
lemons-80.
2/ Estimates for current year carried forward from an earlier forecast.
3/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and midseason
varieties in Florida and Texas.
4/ Estimates discontinued in 2020-2021.
5/ Includes tangelos and tangors.
Sugarcane Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Use - States and United States: 2019 and 2020
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Use and State : Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
:---------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 : 2020
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 acres ----- tons ----- --- 1,000 tons --
:
For sugar :
Florida ......................: 397.0 409.0 42.8 44.2 16,992 18,078
Louisiana 2/ .................: 442.0 462.0 27.7 32.5 12,243 15,015
Texas 2/ .....................: 31.3 33.5 33.6 34.0 1,052 1,139
:
United States ................: 870.3 904.5 34.8 37.8 30,287 34,232
:
For seed :
Florida ......................: 13.7 14.4 47.6 47.0 652 677
Louisiana 2/ .................: 27.0 27.5 34.0 35.9 918 987
Texas 2/ .....................: 2.2 2.4 36.5 37.0 80 89
:
United States ................: 42.9 44.3 38.5 39.6 1,650 1,753
:
For sugar and seed :
Florida ......................: 410.7 423.4 43.0 44.3 17,644 18,755
Louisiana 2/ .................: 469.0 489.5 28.1 32.7 13,161 16,002
Texas 2/ .....................: 33.5 35.9 33.8 34.2 1,132 1,228
:
United States ................: 913.2 948.8 35.0 37.9 31,937 35,985
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Net tons.
2/ Estimates are carried forward from an earlier estimate.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2020 and 2021
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 acres
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .................................: 2,621 2,133
Corn for grain 1/ ......................: 90,819 82,467
Corn for silage ........................: (NA) 6,719
Hay, all ...............................: (NA) 52,238
Alfalfa ..............................: (NA) 16,230
All other ............................: (NA) 36,008
Oats ...................................: 2,984 1,004
Proso millet ...........................: 609 484
Rice ...................................: 3,036 2,987
Rye ....................................: 1,955 330
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...................: 5,880 5,095
Sorghum for silage .....................: (NA) 239
Wheat, all .............................: 44,349 36,746
Winter ...............................: 30,415 31,991 23,024
Durum ................................: 1,684 1,662
Other spring .........................: 12,250 12,060
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .................................: 1,825.0 1,789.0
Cottonseed .............................: (X) (X)
Flaxseed ...............................: 305 296
Mustard seed ...........................: 97.0 91.4
Peanuts ................................: 1,664.2 1,615.8
Rapeseed ...............................: 11.2 10.1
Safflower ..............................: 136.0 126.7
Soybeans for beans .....................: 83,084 82,318
Sunflower ..............................: 1,718.7 1,665.7
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all ............................: 12,092.5 8,701.5
Upland ...............................: 11,890.0 8,507.0
American Pima ........................: 202.5 194.5
Sugarbeets .............................: 1,162.2 1,142.3
Sugarcane ..............................: (NA) 948.8
Tobacco ................................: (NA) 198.1
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas ..............................: 269.8 262.9
Dry edible beans .......................: 1,740.0 1,676.5
Dry edible peas ........................: 999.0 973.0
Lentils ................................: 528.0 514.0
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops ...................................: (NA) 58.6
Maple syrup ............................: (NA) (NA)
Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) (NA)
Peppermint oil .........................: (NA) 50.1
Potatoes ...............................: 921.0 914.1
Spearmint oil ..........................: (NA) 17.7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Domestic Units - United States:
2020 and 2021 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield per acre : Production
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ------ 1,000 ------
:
Grains and hay :
Barley ..........................bushels: 77.5 165,324
Corn for grain ..................bushels: 172.0 14,182,479
Corn for silage ....................tons: 20.5 137,729
Hay, all ...........................tons: 2.43 126,812
Alfalfa ..........................tons: 3.27 53,067
All other ........................tons: 2.05 73,745
Oats ............................bushels: 65.1 65,355
Proso millet ....................bushels: 19.0 9,210
Rice 2/ .............................cwt: 7,619 227,583
Rye .............................bushels: 34.9 11,532
Sorghum for grain ...............bushels: 73.2 372,960
Sorghum for silage .................tons: 13.1 3,125
Wheat, all ......................bushels: 49.7 1,825,820
Winter ........................bushels: 50.9 1,171,022
Durum .........................bushels: 41.4 68,808
Other spring ..................bushels: 48.6 585,990
:
Oilseeds :
Canola ...........................pounds: 1,931 3,454,950
Cottonseed .........................tons: (X) 4,587.0
Flaxseed ........................bushels: 19.3 5,706
Mustard seed .....................pounds: 895 81,770
Peanuts ..........................pounds: 3,796 6,133,900
Rapeseed .........................pounds: 1,971 19,910
Safflower ........................pounds: 1,167 147,800
Soybeans for beans ..............bushels: 50.2 4,135,477
Sunflower ........................pounds: 1,790 2,982,410
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 2/ ....................bales: 825 14,953.0
Upland 2/ .......................bales: 813 14,401.0
American Pima 2/ ................bales: 1,362 552.0
Sugarbeets .........................tons: 29.4 33,618
Sugarcane ..........................tons: 37.9 35,985
Tobacco ..........................pounds: 1,966 389,413
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas 2/ ........................cwt: 1,625 4,273
Dry edible beans 2/ .................cwt: 1,966 32,963
Dry edible peas 2/ ..................cwt: 2,234 21,733
Lentils 2/ ..........................cwt: 1,442 7,411
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops .............................pounds: 1,770 103,810.3
Maple syrup .....................gallons: (NA) 4,372
Mushrooms ........................pounds: (NA) 816,367
Peppermint oil ...................pounds: 99 4,984
Potatoes ............................cwt: 453 414,248
Spearmint oil ....................pounds: 121 2,134
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Yield in pounds.
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2020 and 2021
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from
previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data
cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area planted : Area harvested
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: hectares
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .........................: 1,060,690 863,200
Corn for grain 1/ ..............: 36,753,540 33,373,570
Corn for silage ................: (NA) 2,719,110
Hay, all 2/ ....................: (NA) 21,140,200
Alfalfa ......................: (NA) 6,568,120
All other ....................: (NA) 14,572,080
Oats ...........................: 1,207,590 406,310
Proso millet ...................: 246,460 195,870
Rice ...........................: 1,228,640 1,208,810
Rye ............................: 791,170 133,550
Sorghum for grain 1/ ...........: 2,379,580 2,061,900
Sorghum for silage .............: (NA) 96,720
Wheat, all 2/ ..................: 17,947,600 14,870,740
Winter .......................: 12,308,650 12,946,440 9,317,580
Durum ........................: 681,500 672,590
Other spring .................: 4,957,450 4,880,560
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .........................: 738,560 723,990
Cottonseed .....................: (X) (X)
Flaxseed .......................: 123,430 119,790
Mustard seed ...................: 39,250 36,990
Peanuts ........................: 673,490 653,900
Rapeseed .......................: 4,530 4,090
Safflower ......................: 55,040 51,270
Soybeans for beans .............: 33,623,260 33,313,270
Sunflower ......................: 695,540 674,090
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops:
Cotton, all 2/ .................: 4,893,710 3,521,410
Upland .......................: 4,811,760 3,442,700
American Pima ................: 81,950 78,710
Sugarbeets .....................: 470,330 462,280
Sugarcane ......................: (NA) 383,970
Tobacco ........................: (NA) 80,150
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas ......................: 109,190 106,390
Dry edible beans ...............: 704,160 678,460
Dry edible peas ................: 404,290 393,760
Lentils ........................: 213,680 208,010
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops ...........................: (NA) 23,730
Maple syrup ....................: (NA) (NA)
Mushrooms ......................: (NA) (NA)
Peppermint oil .................: (NA) 20,270
Potatoes .......................: 372,720 369,930
Spearmint oil ..................: (NA) 7,160
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
See footnote(s) at end of table. --continued
Crop Area Planted and Harvested, Yield, and Production in Metric Units - United States:
2020 and 2021 (continued)
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or from previous
reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield per hectare : Production
Crop :-------------------------------------------------------
: 2020 : 2021 : 2020 : 2021
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: metric tons
:
Grains and hay :
Barley .................................: 4.17 3,599,510
Corn for grain .........................: 10.79 360,251,560
Corn for silage ........................: 45.95 124,945,650
Hay, all 2/ ............................: 5.44 115,041,910
Alfalfa ..............................: 7.33 48,141,570
All other ............................: 4.59 66,900,340
Oats ...................................: 2.33 948,630
Proso millet ...........................: 1.07 208,880
Rice ...................................: 8.54 10,322,990
Rye ....................................: 2.19 292,930
Sorghum for grain ......................: 4.59 9,473,620
Sorghum for silage .....................: 29.31 2,834,950
Wheat, all 2/ ..........................: 3.34 49,690,680
Winter ...............................: 3.42 31,870,000
Durum ................................: 2.78 1,872,650
Other spring .........................: 3.27 15,948,030
:
Oilseeds :
Canola .................................: 2.16 1,567,140
Cottonseed .............................: (X) 4,161,260
Flaxseed ...............................: 1.21 144,940
Mustard seed ...........................: 1.00 37,090
Peanuts ................................: 4.25 2,782,290
Rapeseed ...............................: 2.21 9,030
Safflower ..............................: 1.31 67,040
Soybeans for beans .....................: 3.38 112,549,240
Sunflower ..............................: 2.01 1,352,800
:
Cotton, tobacco, and sugar crops :
Cotton, all 2/ .........................: 0.92 3,255,630
Upland ...............................: 0.91 3,135,450
American Pima ........................: 1.53 120,180
Sugarbeets .............................: 65.97 30,497,740
Sugarcane ..............................: 85.02 32,645,040
Tobacco ................................: 2.20 176,630
:
Dry beans, peas, and lentils :
Chickpeas ..............................: 1.82 193,820
Dry edible beans .......................: 2.20 1,495,180
Dry edible peas ........................: 2.50 985,790
Lentils ................................: 1.62 336,160
:
Potatoes and miscellaneous :
Hops ...................................: 1.98 47,090
Maple syrup ............................: (NA) 21,860
Mushrooms ..............................: (NA) 370,300
Peppermint oil .........................: 0.11 2,260
Potatoes ...............................: 50.79 18,789,970
Spearmint oil ..........................: 0.14 970
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.
(X) Not applicable.
1/ Area planted for all purposes.
2/ Total may not add due to rounding.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Domestic Units - United States: 2020 and 2021
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2020-2021 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------
: 2020 : 2021
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ......................1,000 tons: 535 564
Lemons ..........................1,000 tons: 1,100 1,036
Oranges .........................1,000 tons: 5,217 4,624
Tangerines and mandarins ........1,000 tons: 928 970
:
Noncitrus :
Apples, commercial ..........million pounds: 10,650.0
Apricots ..............................tons: 34,800
Avocados ..............................tons:
Blueberries, Cultivated .......1,000 pounds:
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .....1,000 pounds:
Cherries, Sweet .......................tons: 334,000
Cherries, Tart ..............million pounds: 197.0
Coffee (Hawaii) ...............1,000 pounds: 27,590
Cranberries .........................barrel: 8,970,000
:
Dates .................................tons:
Grapes ................................tons: 7,180,000
Kiwifruit (California) ................tons:
Nectarines (California) ...............tons:
Olives (California) ...................tons:
Papayas (Hawaii) ..............1,000 pounds:
Peaches ...............................tons: 645,500
Pears .................................tons: 800,000
Plums (California) ....................tons:
Prunes (California) ...................tons:
Raspberries, all .............1,000 pounds:
Strawberries .....................1,000 cwt:
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) .1,000 pounds: 3,000,000
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..........tons: 71,000
Macadamias (Hawaii) ...........1,000 pounds:
Pecans, in-shell ..............1,000 pounds: 302,350
Pistachios (California) .......1,000 pounds:
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ........tons: 780,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2019-2020 and 2020-2021.
Fruits and Nuts Production in Metric Units - United States: 2020 and 2021
[Data are the latest estimates available, either from the current report or
from previous reports. Current year estimates are for the full 2021 crop year,
except citrus which is for the 2020-2021 season. Blank data cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Production
Crop :-----------------------------------
: 2020 : 2021
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: metric tons
:
Citrus 1/ :
Grapefruit ................................: 485,340 511,650
Lemons ....................................: 997,900 939,840
Oranges ...................................: 4,732,780 4,194,820
Tangerines and mandarins ..................: 841,870 879,970
:
Noncitrus :
Apples, commercial ........................: 4,830,760
Apricots ..................................: 31,570
Avocados ..................................:
Blueberries, Cultivated ...................:
Blueberries, Wild (Maine) .................:
Cherries, Sweet ...........................: 303,000
Cherries, Tart ............................: 89,360
Coffee (Hawaii) ...........................: 12,510
Cranberries ...............................: 406,870
:
Dates .....................................:
Grapes ....................................: 6,513,590
Kiwifruit (California) ....................:
Nectarines (California) ...................:
Olives (California) .......................:
Papayas (Hawaii) ..........................:
Peaches ...................................: 585,590
Pears .....................................: 725,750
Plums (California) ........................:
Prunes (California) .......................:
Raspberries, all ..........................:
Strawberries ..............................:
:
Nuts and miscellaneous :
Almonds, shelled (California) .............: 1,360,780
Hazelnuts, in-shell (Oregon) ..............: 64,410
Macadamias (Hawaii) .......................:
Pecans, in-shell ..........................: 137,140
Pistachios (California) ...................:
Walnuts, in-shell (California) ............: 707,600
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Production years are 2019-2020 and 2020-2021.
January Weather Summary
Arctic air was nearly absent from the United States in January, helping to
boost monthly temperatures more than 10°F above normal in parts of Minnesota,
Montana, and the Dakotas. Northern warmth was particularly impressive during
the first half of January, followed by modest, late-month cold outbreaks. In
fact, near- or above-normal temperatures covered the entire country, except
for pockets of colder-than-normal weather in the Rockies and Southwest.
Meanwhile, drought coverage remained nearly steady in January at 45 to
46 percent of the Lower 48 States, according to the United States Drought
Monitor, down slightly from a December 2020 peak of 49.6 percent. During the
second half of January, Western storms provided some limited drought relief
in the Pacific Coast States and parts of the Southwest. The most impressive
storm to strike the West was a sprawling, slow-moving, late month system,
which primarily impacted California but also affected other areas. During a
10-day period ending in early February, the average water equivalency of the
high-elevation Sierra Nevada snowpack increased from 6.0 to 12.5 inches (from
39 to 70 percent of average for the date), according to the California
Department of Water Resources. Dry conditions persisted through the end of
January, however, across the northern Plains, leading to drought expansion
and intensification.
By January 24, topsoil moisture was rated at least one-half very short to
short throughout the Great Plains, except in Oklahoma (40 percent). Wyoming
led the region with topsoil moisture rated 90 percent very short to short on
that date, followed by Colorado (79 percent), North Dakota (75 percent),
South Dakota (62 percent), Nebraska (60 percent), Montana (57 percent),
Kansas (55 percent), and Texas (51 percent). In some areas, winter wheat
condition reflected the lack of moisture, despite few temperature extremes.
Among the Plains' major winter wheat production States, Texas led on
January 24 with 41 percent of its crop rated very poor to poor, followed by
Colorado (36 percent) and Kansas (24 percent).
Across the central Plains, however, a late-month storm-peaking on January 25-
delivered heavy snow and beneficial moisture. The storm propelled Lincoln,
Nebraska, to its snowiest January on record, with a monthly total of
18.9 inches. Periods of precipitation also fell in the Corn Belt, especially
on January 25-26 and 30-31, although parts of the upper Midwest remained
mostly dry. Several storms crossed the South and East, with some of the
heaviest precipitation falling from western Florida to the middle
Atlantic Coast. In contrast, near-record January dryness covered much of
Florida's peninsula.
January Agricultural Summary
January was warmer than average for most of the Nation. Temperatures averaged
3°F or more above normal for much of the Great Lakes, Northeast, Central and
Northern Plains, Northern Rockies, and the Pacific Northwest. Parts of the
Dakotas, Maine, Minnesota, and Montana recorded temperatures 9°F or more
above normal for the month. In contrast, parts of the Southern Rockies, the
Southwest, and West Texas were moderately cooler the normal. During January,
large parts of the Mid and South-Atlantic Coast, the Central and
Southern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley received
higher than normal precipitation for the month. Drier than normal conditions
were experienced in Florida, the Great Lakes, Lower Mississippi Valley,
Northeast, Northern Plains and large parts of the West.
Crop Comments
Grapefruit: The United States 2020-2021 grapefruit crop is forecast at
564,000 tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 5 percent from last
season's final utilization. In Florida, expected production, at
4.60 million boxes (196,000 tons), is unchanged from the previous forecast
but down 5 percent from last year. California and Texas grapefruit production
forecast were carried forward from the previous forecast.
Tangerines and mandarins: The United States tangerine and mandarin crop is
forecast at 970,000 tons, down slightly from the previous forecast but
up 5 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida tangerine and
mandarin forecast, at 1.05 million boxes (50,000 tons) is down 5 percent from
the previous forecast but up 3 percent from last season. The California
tangerine and mandarin forecast was carried forward from the previous
forecast.
Sugarcane: Production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is forecast
at 36.0 million tons, up 1 percent from last month and up 13 percent from
last year. Producers intend to harvest 948,800 acres for sugar and seed
during the 2020 crop year, up 1 percent from the previous forecast and
up 4 percent from last year. Yields for sugar and seed are expected to
average 37.9 tons per acre, up 0.2 ton from last month and up 2.9 tons from
2019. In Florida, expected production of sugarcane for sugar and seed is
forecast at 18.8 million tons, is up 3 percent from last month and
up 6 percent from last year. Louisiana and Texas forecasts were carried
forward from the previous forecast.
Statistical Methodology
Survey procedures: The orange objective yield survey for the February 1
forecast was conducted in Florida. In August and September last year, the
number of bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree was determined. In
August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage
surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used
to develop the current forecast of production. California and Texas conduct
grower survey on a quarterly basis in October, January, April, and July.
California conducts an objective measurement survey in September for Navel
oranges and in March for Valencia oranges.
Estimating procedures: State level objective yield estimates for Florida
oranges were reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with
historical estimates. Reports from growers in California and Texas were also
used for setting estimates. These three States submit their analyses of the
current situation to the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB uses
the survey data and the State analyses to prepare the published February 1
forecast.
Revision policy: The February 1 production forecasts will not be revised. A
new forecast will be made each month throughout the growing season. End-of-
season estimates will be published in the Citrus Fruits Summary released in
August. The production estimates are based on all data available at the end
of the marketing season, including information from marketing orders,
shipments, and processor records. Allowances are made for recorded local
utilization and home use.
Reliability: To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the February 1
production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure
based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the February 1
production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of
the final estimate. The average of squared percentage deviations for the
latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes
statistically the "Root Mean Square Error." Probability statements can be
made concerning expected differences in the current forecast relative to the
final end-of-season estimate, assuming that factors affecting this year's
forecast are not different from those influencing recent years. For example,
the "Root Mean Square Error" for the February 1 orange production forecast is
5.0 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current orange
production forecast will not be above or below the final estimates by more
than 5.0 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence level) that
the difference will not exceed 8.6 percent.
Also, shown in the following table is a 20-year record for selected crops of
the differences between the February 1 forecast and the final estimate. Using
oranges again as an example, changes between the February 1 forecast and the
final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 286,000 tons, ranging
from 18,000 tons to 843,000 tons. The February 1 forecast for oranges has
been below the final estimate 7 times and above 13 times. This does not imply
that the February 1 orange forecast this year is likely to understate or
overstate final production.
Reliability of February 1 Crop Production Forecasts
[Based on data for the past twenty years]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : Difference between forecast
: : : and final estimate
: : :----------------------------------------
: :90 percent : Production : Years
Crop : Root mean :confidence :----------------------------------------
:square error: interval : : : : Below : Above
: : :Average:Smallest:Largest: final : final
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: ---- percent --- ------ millions ----- number
:
Oranges 1/ ...............tons: 5.0 8.6 286 18 843 7 13
Sugarcane ...............tons: 3.0 5.1 672 192 2,530 3 17
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Quantity is in thousands of units.
USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics
Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to nass@usda.gov
Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch......................................................... (202) 720-2127
Chris Hawthorn, Head, Field Crops Section................................................ (202) 720-2127
Irwin Anolik - Crop Weather......................................................... (202) 720-7621
Joshua Bates - Oats, Soybeans....................................................... (202) 690-3234
David Colwell - Current Agricultural Industrial Reports............................. (202) 720-8800
Becky Sommer - Cotton, Cotton Ginnings, Sorghum..................................... (202) 720-5944
James Johanson - Barley, County Estimates, Hay...................................... (202) 690-8533
Greg Lemmons - Corn, Flaxseed, Proso Millet......................................... (202) 720-9526
Jean Porter - Rye, Wheat............................................................ (202) 720-8068
John Stephens - Peanuts, Rice....................................................... (202) 720-7688
Travis Thorson - Sunflower, Other Oilseeds.......................................... (202) 720-7369
Fleming Gibson, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section....................... (202) 720-2127
......................................................................................... Heidi
Lanouette - Blueberries, Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins,
Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes................. (202) 720-4285
Robert Little - Apricots, Dry Beans, Lettuce, Macadamia, Maple Syrup,
Nectarines, Pears, Snap Beans, Spinach, Tomatoes......................................... (202) 720-3250
Anastasiya Osborne - Almonds, Apples, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions
Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco....................................................... (202) 720-4288
Krishna Rizal - Artichokes, Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Garlic, Hazelnuts,
Kiwifruit, Lemons, Mandarins and tangerines, Mint, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges............ (202) 720-5412
Fleming Gibson - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas,
Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans................................. (202) 720-2127
Antonio Torres - Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Honeydews, Lentils,
Papayas, Peaches, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Walnuts, Watermelons.................... (202) 720-2157
Access to NASS Reports
For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following
ways:
All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web
site: www.nass.usda.gov
Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-
mail subscription. To set-up this free subscription, visit
www.nass.usda.gov and click on "National" or "State" in upper right
corner above "search" box to create an account and select the reports
you would like to receive.
Cornell's Mann Library has launched a new website housing NASS's and
other agency's archived reports. The new website,
https://usda.library.cornell.edu. All email subscriptions containing
reports will be sent from the new website,
https://usda.library.cornell.edu. To continue receiving the reports via
e-mail, you will have to go to the new website, create a new account
and re-subscribe to the reports. If you need instructions to set up an
account or subscribe, they are located at:
https://usda.library.cornell.edu/help. You should whitelist
notifications@usda-esmis.library.cornell.edu in your email client to
avoid the emails going into spam/junk folders.
For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail:
nass@usda.gov.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) prohibits discrimination against
its customers, employees, and applicants for employment on the basis of race,
color, national origin, age, disability, sex, gender identity, religion,
reprisal, and where applicable, political beliefs, marital status, familial
or parental status, sexual orientation, or all or part of an individual's
income is derived from any public assistance program, or protected genetic
information in employment or in any program or activity conducted or funded
by the Department. (Not all prohibited bases will apply to all programs
and/or employment activities.)
If you wish to file a Civil Rights program complaint of discrimination,
complete the USDA Program Discrimination Complaint Form (PDF), found online
at www.ascr.usda.gov/filing-program-discrimination-complaint-usda-customer,
or at any USDA office, or call (866) 632-9992 to request the form. You may
also write a letter containing all of the information requested in the form.
Send your completed complaint form or letter to us by mail at U.S. Department
of Agriculture, Director, Office of Adjudication, 1400 Independence Avenue,
S.W., Washington, D.C. 20250-9410, by fax (202) 690-7442 or email at
program.intake@usda.gov.Crop Production